Obama's loss in NH

Much has been made of women coming back to Hillary in NH and how it drove her eventual win there.

But there is one thing that's interesting... take a look at the IA and NH exit polls. In IA Obama took 35% of women, in NH he took 34%. Hillary, on the other hand, received 30% and 46% respectively. Obama didn't actually lose any female voters, but Hillary gained a whopping 16 points.

What changed? Everyone else. Edwards lost 8 points with women. Dodd and Biden dropped out, freeing up 4 points and she siphoned another 4 points off Richardson.

So what caused it?

Part of it was probably Edwards' ill-advised response to her display of emotion. It seems likely that women, seeing their also-ran candidates fall behind, gave up on them and pulled behind Clinton in a show of solidarity as she was piled-on by the media.

In fact, it looks like this might have happened nationally. Look at this graph from Real Clear Politics... almost all of Hillary's rebound in national polls after NH came from Edwards losses.

This brings up another interesting point. What if Edwards wins Nevada? Unlikely, but possible. He's polling surprisingly well considering his losses in NH and IA.

I think an Edwards win (or even resurgence) spells bad news for Hillary... it means the female voters are coming back to him. A SC primary with the female vote split and the black vote now solidly behind Obama could spell a big loss for her.