Edwards falls off the horse

Today in New Orleans Edwards withdrew his bid to be president, trimming the Dem race to Hillary and Obama.

Thoughts...

First obvious questions: Who will endorse and where will his votes go? If he endorses someone will his supporters follow his lead?

Conventional wisdom seems to be that he'll go for Obama... I tend to agree, but there have been at least a few rumblings from his campaign trying to prove he's undecided. His brief turn on Obama at the SC debate would be a point against conventional wisdom, regardless I think we'll hear soon.

His voters are less clear. As Chris Bowers points out here, the Edwards supporters seem to be pro-change (and maybe anti-Hillary) but are also white, union, poorer and older... all demographics that break for Hillary. Also, newly undecided voters tend to break with whoever has momentum. After SC (and some new polling) that would seem to be Obama.

Lost in a sea of indecision, his voters (and delegates!) may well follow whatever endorsement he makes... so he has the potential to be a game changer. Clinton is pushing hard for the endorsement and might be able to get it if Edwards ambition outstrips his rhetoric.

Second, less obvious question: Why now? His huge loss was apparent on Saturday, things were still looking bleak then, why wait until Wed?

Possible answers:
1) He thought he had a chance in FL. This seems unlikely, he wasn't polling well and wasn't allowed to campaign there. Plus he didn't make any FL specific pitches (like Hillary). However the timing would be standard for a disappointing loss.
2) He wanted to see how Feb 5 polling came out. Seeing himself making gains after the SC debate he wanted to do some national polling and see if those were across the board. If it looked like he wasn't going to hit viability (15%), and thus not be able to play kingmaker, he might have dropped out.
3) He's trying to help Obama. By dropping out immediately after FL he grabs the news cycle for Dem politics and overshadows any news about Hillary's beauty contest win. He dominates the news for a day, then with an Obama endorsement shortly after, puts the ball solidly in Obama's square.

If Edwards comes out for Obama soon I'd put my money on #3, otherwise #2 seems most likely.

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I'm going out on a limb here and predicting that Edwards quit to help Obama. My guess is he'll endorse in the next couple days and add to the flurry of established Dems (Kennedy, Kerry, Daschle) throwing their weight behind Obama.