News & Strategies

In case you've been hiding under a rock, Obama won big in South Carolina. He did so by carrying a large portion of the the black vote (4/5ths) and about 1/4 of the white vote, with the remainders of the white vote split between Hillary and Edwards. He also appears to have picked up the endorsement of Ted Kennedy, a mini-coup because of the Kennedy family's long standing ties with the Clintons.

Meanwhile Hillary is doing her best to downplay SC and focus attention on Florida, which votes on Tuesday but has been stripped of it's delegates by the DNC. Edwards suffered another loss, cementing his third place status and giving a probable final blow to his efforts to appear viable.

So, strategies from here on out:

Obama
Try to pull back out of the mud and return to message of hope and national reconciliation. Push back if either Clinton fudges his record by hitting back on her trust and honesty issues. Adjust message a bit as the economy eclipses Iraq in the voters minds.

Continue to classify FL as inconsequential since it has no delegates, the candidates pledged not to campaign there and, well, Hillary is leading there.

Hope for a bounce from SC to erode some of Hillary's leads in big name Super Tuesday states (NY, CA). Meanwhile try to get lots of wins in smaller states, particularly in the midwest and states with large black populations. Trot out Ted Kennedy as much as possible, especially in CA, and hope that his following among Hispanics (from his championship of pro-immigrant stands) helps to erase some of Hillary's lead.

Speaking of Hispanics, I'm surprised Obama hasn't pointed out (much) that he's the son of an (African) immigrant. Seems like that could go some way towards bridging the gap he has there, one that's largely attributed to the tensions between blacks and hispanics.

Clinton
Reign in Bill a bit. Even if his attacks hit he diminishes Hillary's image as a strong, self-made woman.

Emphasize FL as much as you can and hope that you meet/beat expectations there, hopefully regaining a little momentum. FL is a little dangerous as any significant loss in the expectations game (winning by a slim margin, losing) works against her, while a win may not carry much weight (unless it's huge.)

She should focus on the economy, currently it looks like she's trying to contrast the current economy with that of the 90's to highlight her strength on economic issues... getting the double whammy by giving voters nostalgia for the 90's economy when, coincidentally, her husband was President.

Try to make the Feb 5 story about who wins NY and CA, since those are both strong points for her and big delegate states.

Edwards
SC was his last stand to appear viable. Barring some very, very drastic change in the dynamic Edwards can't win.

So why stay in? To influence who does and hopefully get a vice presidency out of the deal.

Two options:

Drop out now and endorse someone. Get credit for taking a politically risky stand, but it's all or nothing, if his endorsee loses he'll be sent home with his tail between his legs. This is the best option if one of the candidates runs away with the race from here.

Play kingmaker. Assuming a close race he could try and gather as many delegates as possible, then, late in the game, throw his support behind someone and hopefully crown them the winner. The advantage is this allows him to hedge his bets, if the winner becomes obvious he can get behind him/her and still be in their good graces. If he is the deciding factor between the two then he basically guarantees himself a VP or AG spot. One risk is that his delegates are not obligated to follow his suggestions, so who knows whether they'll follow his line or their own preferences.

It seems he's heading the kingmaker route, it'll be a crazy election if he gets to actually choose it. Consequences of him staying in the race, assuming he still gets votes... he splits the white vote and the female vote with Clinton, but also splits the anti-Hillary and Change vote with Obama. So, if he's still in on Feb 5, he'll probably hurt Clinton in the South and hurt Obama in the Northeast.

I'm curious if Hillary's last minute robo-call slams of Edwards in SC (I think to make sure she didn't finish third) will at all embitter his supporters against her. If so then his losses might become Obama's gains.

Overall
A few general trends to look for.

Hillary gets high marks from voters on the economy, so the more news of the economy tanking, the better off Hillary will be. Obama's fortunes somewhat follow the Iraq war, when the news is good in the Middle East people focus less on his opposition to the war and more on their domestic concerns.

Obama is strong with those that want change, Hillary with those that focus on experience/competence. Hillary is losing ground in the electability question, probably a by product of Bill's heavy involvement. This may become a factor if McCain wins in FL and becomes the clear front-runner as some Dems are worried that she will lose to him.