What comes...

Well Super Tuesday came and went... and it looks to be a draw. Obama won more states and, it appears, slightly more delgates. Clinton won the big prizes (CA, MA, NJ) and, just barely, the popular vote.

So, what's the rest of the race look like?

Well, Obama appears to have a good month ahead of him. The upcoming races:

2/9
Washington and Nebraska lean heavily Obama. Louisiana is a little less certain as it's demographics were drastically changed by Katrina, Clinton's best shot at a pickup on the day. Also the Virgin Islands weigh in, with 3 delegates, your guess is as good as mine.

2/10
Maine is probably Hillary's best shot to take a state in Feb. The demographics and location favor her, however it's a caucus state, which she has only won one of so far (NV). Also 7 delegates from Dems Abroad, probably leaning Obama.

2/12
DC and Maryland have large black populations, which should help Obama. Virginia has a slimmer black population and is sandwiched between the South and the Northeast, where Obama and Clinton are relatively stronger. It will be a hard fought race and another possible Clinton win.

2/19
Wisconsin and Hawaii. WI is upper midwest and sandwiched between IL and MN which both went heavily for Obama, a win for him. Hawaii is a caucus state, a former home state for Obama and strongly liberal... count that one for him.

3/4
This is were things could turn back to Hillary. Texas and Ohio are big delegate states that both lean her direction.

---
So, what's this mean for the candidates?

Well Hillary's goal has to be to win a couple states in there and keep the margins slim in the others. If Obama gets a string of blowout wins he could start pulling the finger-in-the-wind folk his direction and rack up a hard to beat lead. Get as much free media as she can, encourage debates (which favor her strengths) and keep expectations low to minimize Obama's wins.

Obama should be going for a knockout blow here. If he can win solidly in the first few states he has a good shot a winning all of the contests in February, by gradually increasing margins. Not only does this help delegate wise, it gives him the chance to emerge as a clear front-runner and pull some super delegates to his side. Just as importantly it gives him a tailwind into Ohio and Texas, which can keep Hillary from racking up big wins there. If he continues to out-raise Hillary it's possible for him to compete strongly on March 4th. The more Hillary has to loan her campaign money, the worse it looks for her.

All in all I think Obama is in the stronger spot. The biggest danger is that he gets caught in the same expectations trap of NH and Feb 5... the polls point to enough momentum that any win that isn't a drubbing is considered good for Hillary. If Hillary is able to pull off a few states in Feb, maintaining the even race dialog, then she'll be in a very strong spot come March 4th as she returns to her strongest spots.

Regardless it's going to be crazy for the next month or so.