Super Fat Tuesday

The day of judgement draws nigh.

In two days time just under half of the US will vote in a primary/caucus. So, what's going to happen?

Possible answers:
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1) Hillary's long standing leads in polls hold out and she wins a clear majority of states and delegates. Obama picks up Illinois, and a few states that caucus or have large black populations. This was the pre-SC/Teddy scenario and seems pretty unlikely now. If this happens Hillary will probably take the nomination.

2)A draw/lean Hillary... Hillary wins in the southwest, barely pulls out CA and dominates NY. Obama does well in the red states, the deep south, the mid-west and dominates IL. They split the northeast and a couple in-between states. Probably what most people are predicting right now, with Hillary expected to lead slightly from wins in CA and NY while splitting NJ and CT.

3)Draw/lean Obama... same as #2, but Obama wins either CA or 2/3 of NY/NJ/MA. Tough call if this or #2 is more likely, Hillary has name recognition and a strong initial base of support... Obama is riding momentum.

4)Big win for Obama... Obama wins CA, NJ, MA,IL and stays close in NY. Wins most of the south, the mid-west and all of the caucus states. If this happens Obama will probably win the nomination.
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So which is it? Given current trends I would call it for #2, but just barely over #3.

Data points in Obama's favor:

-Obama is closing in polls nationwide and in Feb 5 states.
-Teddy's endorsement is a PR coupe and also gives him a strong advocate with Latinos and traditional Dems, two of his weakest demographics.
-Today he got the endorsement of Maria Shiver, a Kennedy and the wife of Arnold. Maria is identified as a strong female figure in CA politics and will help shore up his support among women.
-The $$... he raised $32 million in January (mostly from small donors) and has a big nationwide ad-buy going on right now, outspending Clinton
-Oprah's back and campaigning in CA... some would say she helped decide IA
-Thus far Obama has out-performed polls and gained points the more time he gets. Polls right now point to a scenario somewhere between 1 & 2... if his trends hold then he should move towards a pure draw or a lean Obama

Data points in Hillary's favor:

-Hillary has leads in most of these states that are just now starting to tighten. They may not tighten fast enough for Obama and eventually that trend will bottom out when it cuts down to her core supporters.
-Early voting, especially in CA, keeps her a step ahead. The CA mail-in ballots went out the day she won NH.
-Hillary has big name recognition and doesn't have to spend her time introducing herself
-She's one of the strongest and most connected politicians of our age, as we learned in NH it's dangerous to count her out.

Finally, things that could provide a swing:
-Endorsements: The biggest right now would be Edwards, since he can speak directly to a group of undecideds that have respect for him. Al Gore could swing TN, core dems and environment dems. Richardson could swing Latinos and NM. Obama would really benefit from Richardson, Hillary would like Gore to get help amongst the far left and either of them would love, love, love Edwards' endorsement.

- Turnout: The story of IA vs. NH is the story of youth turnout vs. female turnout. If either of these groups turn out heavily then (respectively) Obama or Hillary will benefit.

-Events: Any major news event that brings a major topic forward could swing things a percent or two. Something like a big change in the stock market or major news from Iraq could change the focus. Generally Hillary is strong on the economy while Obama is strong on Iraq.

-Gaffes/Scandals/Coverage: Since there is so little face time with the candidates many opinions will be formed based upon news coverage of events. Hillary has had a rough week on this front. This may be some of the basis for Obama's gains in the polls.

-Dirty tricks: Push polls, false rumors, voter intimidation/misinformation... all of these things are reprehensible and depressingly effective, especially with a relatively uninformed electorate.

So that's that, let's see how it plays out.