It'd take a miracle

Yesterday Obama cleaned up in the Potomac Primary. His tightest margin was his 24 point win in Maryland. But that's not the whole story... in addition he won almost all of the demographics that Hillary has traditionally been strong in (Latinos, older voters, < $50K voters) and came closer among white females and white Dems, her bulwark. The best news for him is that this is news, namely that the news orgs have picked it up and said that it shows he can win among her base.

It also gives him wins in two largish primaries, another common talking point. So, in short, he's sitting pretty.

One note... same-day voters were still strong for Hillary, she won them in VA and they were her strongest loss in MA. So, by my earlier thesis, it seems she is still strong on name recognition and perceived strength.

So, the question of the day is... Can she still win?

The answer? Yes, but it'd take a miracle. Or something close to it.

Obama is going to come out of February with a significant lead among pledged delegates. Currently he's ahead by 128 and Wisconsin and Hawaii, both expected wins for him, have yet to vote. By Obama's estimates he should add another 11 delegates (including dems abroad) to the spread. Thus far his estimates have proved very conservative, he's beat them by 21% relative to the states size. If he continues to do that he will come away with an additional 32 delegates, for a total split of 160 pledged delegates.

Besides this Obama's riding a wave of momentum that will threaten to swamp any built in leads that Hillary has in TX and OH. If he continues to win Latinos and/or over 65 folk she's toast.

So what chance is there? Basically she has to change the dynamic. Hence her calls for debates, which favor her strengths and pull Obama off the trail where he's strongest. It's also likely that she'll go negative in the upcoming weeks, basically throw a whole lot of mud and hope something sticks.

One big thing that could go her way is an Edwards endorsement. It would be big news as it would seem to be a reversal and it could help her shore up support among white men, where she's been slipping. Not to mention the 26 or so delegates that he could strongly encourage to get behind her.

So we'll see... WI is the next big test. It has some demographics that seem to favor Clinton, but it's in an area that's generally been Obama country. If Obama wins blue-collar dems there it's probably the beginning of the end for Clinton.